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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

@review_en
Channel's geo and language: Uzbekistan, English
Category: Economics

Information and analytical portal of the "Economic Review" Journal. Official channel of Review.uz website
Editorial team: @CERRUZB
78 150 02 02 (417)
Advertising: 99878-150-02-02 (432)
In English: @review_en
In Uzbek: @reviewuznews
In Russian: @reviewuz

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

17 Jan, 08:10

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🇺🇸Treasury’s Elite Bond Dealers Will Struggle to Handle $50 Trillion Debt
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that as US debt balloons, firms that play a vital role in ensuring the biggest bond market works properly warn of the risk of growing pressures.

👤Formed in 1960 by the New York Fed to ensure the smooth functioning of a Treasury market that has since grown to nearly $29 trillion and is a benchmark for setting borrowing costs across the world, the current system of primary dealers stands at two dozen, about half the number at its peak in 1988.

📉Primary dealers are seen as the ultimate backstop at auctions because they are required to bid for at least their pro-rata share of the total issuance. They are beefing up market guardrails, with a move to more central clearing of Treasuries and other efforts to facilitate trading.

📈 The amount of Treasury debt outstanding has exploded by more than $15 trillion in the last decade, and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects chronic US deficits will lift US public debt to just over $50 trillion by the end of 2034.

📊For primary dealers, the issue boils down to whether they can keep up with a gushing spigot of Treasury sales. Primary dealer holdings of US Treasuries reached an all-time high of almost $400 billion. In 2014, dealers’ holdings averaged $43 billion.

📌Relevant:
📎 Trump Should Reform Financial Watchdogs. Here’s How
📎 A New World Order Is Here, and It Looks a Lot Like Mercantilism
📎 Dollar Dominance Is the Key to US Debt and Deficits

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

16 Jan, 07:31

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🇩🇪German Industry Emits More as Cheap, Dirty Fuel Lures Firms

Bloomberg reports that nation accounts for a quarter of EU energy-CO2 pollution. Green energy has contributed to drop in overall emissions.

📊Emissions from industrial output rose by 2% last year, even amid a contraction in the sector. A further increase is expected if the economy recovers in the future.

📊Overall, Germany still managed to cut its carbon emissions by 3% last year, as it shut some coal-fired power stations and ramped up renewables to generate electricity.

📈There’s a reluctance among households and corporations to embrace green technologies, despite an overall decline in electricity costs. Sales of heat pumps and new registrations of electric cars fell by 44% and 26% respectively last year.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

15 Jan, 15:34

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❗️❗️❗️1️⃣2️⃣th issue of the "Economic Review" Journal

➡️ Topic of the issue: Perspectives Defined by Achievements

⬇️In this issue:

🔝 Tasks for the future from the perspective of the achieved results

🔝 Ensuring the sustainability of the economy in an unstable world

🔝 "Brand with a national flavor"
⚡️ interview with an entrepreneur ⚡️

🔝 Instruments for protecting the domestic market under WTO rules

🔝 The World Bank on the middle income trap

🔝 Taxation of microbusiness entrepreneurs

🔝 Use every opportunity productively
🔝 interview with assistant to the khokim

🔝 Digital transformation of Uzbekistan

🔝 Climate policy of Uzbekistan

🔝 "Rationality" by Steven Pinker
📖Book Review

⚡️Download
🔺Economic Review
🔺Иқтисодий шарҳ

‼️All issues of the "ECONOMIC REVIEW" Journal are available via
✔️CLICK ✔️PAYME ✔️Visa / MasterCard

📎Make an e-subscription on REVIEW.UZ

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

15 Jan, 07:34

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☀️ Europe’s Negative Power Prices Undermine 2030 Clean Energy Goals

Bloomberg reports that waning profitability risks slowing renewable expansion in Europe.

🇪🇺Europe is on track to miss its 2030 targets for clean energy as increasingly frequent bouts of negative prices discourage investors from backing new projects. Excess solar and wind frequently push power prices below zero.

📊EU solar and wind capacity will rise to about 850 gigawatts by 2030, falling short of the goal for around 1,100 gigawatts set out by national energy and climate plans. Outdated subsidy schemes are partially to blame.

🌥On the sunniest or windiest days, electricity can flood the grid, which causes prices to turn negative and users can be paid to consume. However, because of how subsidies work for renewable generators, some are incentivized to keep producing even when prices drop below zero, further distorting the market.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

14 Jan, 07:30

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🏆Why the World’s Powers Are Locked in a Battle Over Computer Chips
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that the devices are now the focus of intense competition between the world’s economic superpowers.

🇺🇸The US wants to curb the sale of AI chips used in data centers on both a country and company basis, with the goal of concentrating AI development in friendly nations and getting businesses around the world to align with American standards.

📊Chipmaking has become an increasingly exclusive business. New plants have a price tag of more than $20 billion, take years to build and need to be run flat-out for 24 hours a day to turn a profit. The scale required has reduced the number of companies with leading-edge technology to just three — Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co. and Intel Corp. of the US.

🇨🇳Huawei and its main partner Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. are now stalled at 7nm technology. They are likely to remain so until 2026 — several generations behind the latest technology.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

13 Jan, 09:43

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🇺🇿🇦🇪 Infographics: Trade, economic and investment cooperation between Uzbekistan and the UAE

1️⃣President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev is paying an official visit to the UAE on January 13-16.

#CERR analyzed trade, economic and investment cooperation between Uzbekistan and the UAE for the period 2017-2024.

📶 Over the period 2017-2023, Uzbekistan's trade with the UAE increased 5.4 times from $115 million (in 2017) to $626 million (in 2023).

🔝 According to the results of 11 months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, the volume of trade between Uzbekistan and the UAE increased by 4.2% and amounted to $591 million (in 2023 – $567 million).

🔄 In 2023, the UAE ranked 3rd among the countries investing in the economy of Uzbekistan in terms of investments, with an indicator of $1.2 billion. In the 1st half of 2024, the volume of UAE investments in the economy of Uzbekistan amounted to $592.2 million.

📊 As of December 1, 2024, 337 enterprises with UAE investments are operating in Uzbekistan. In total, over the period 2017-2023, the volume of UAE investments in Uzbekistan exceeded $1.5 billion.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

13 Jan, 07:31

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📊What We Learned From the Hottest Year on Record

Bloomberg reports that independent scientific agencies have now confirmed 2024 was the hottest year on record.

📊The global average temperature reached 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, according to five independent science agencies. It’s the most potent sign yet that countries are failing to meet a Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating to that amount long-term.

📈Greenhouse gas emissions were responsible for almost 80% of 2023’s heat record. El Niño added less than 5%. But 0.2C of the heat budget was missing, and that’s not normal. Why that’s the case — and more important, whether it signals a pace of warming even more dangerous than models projected — remains unsettled.

📉Two research groups predict that 2025 will be the third hottest year on record. Something’s pushing up temperatures faster than expected, but climate detectives have yet to agree on what.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

10 Jan, 07:31

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🇺🇸America Still Leads the World in All the Ways That Matter

Bloomberg reports that in terms of economic strength, demographic trends and yes, political resilience, the US remains ahead of China and Europe.

📊Prophecies of doom are legion; even Trump has sometimes argued that America’s best days are in the past. In fact, in many respects America remains a rising power — which should be a source of confidence in addressing the dangers ahead.

📉Consider economic power, the wellspring of every other form of influence. Less than a generation ago, the US economy was about the size of Europe’s. Today, it outstrips the European Union economy by roughly a third. Over the past half-decade, the overall gap between the US and Chinese economies — as measured by GDP — has been getting larger.

🇨🇳China, meanwhile, is headed for demographic catastrophe, due to the long tail of its one-child policy: By 2100, its population will likely be less than half of what it is today. Thanks to a decent fertility rate and high immigration, USA's population isn’t projected to peak for another half-century.

📊A long-term edge won’t save the US if it fails to get ready for a potential near-term military conflict with China.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

9 Jan, 07:35

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🗓The Best Predictions for 2025 Are Actually About 2024

Bloomberg reports that as it always does, hindsight had a very good year.

📊Tech’s tycoons are hoping their big investments in artificial intelligence and President-elect Donald Trump will start to pay off in 2025. AI’s ravenous demand for content, electricity and data-center real estate will spark growing opposition.

💸For the tech subsector of crypto, 2025 may be the year when practical applications such as decentralized digital identities, oracles and zero-knowledge proofs start to attract more attention than the dizzying ups and downs of Bitcoin.

👨🏻‍💻In the workplace hybrid continuing to be the norm for knowledge workers in 2025 even as some employers loudly trumpet five-day-a-week return to the office.

📈One big problem with efforts to invest our way out of the climate crisis is that high-emissions sectors such as industrials and agriculture attract a lot less capital than those with lower emissions but the potential for higher returns. Carbon credits offer a way to even out this disparity.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

8 Jan, 07:20

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🌏The Asian Dream Is Waking Up to Reality

Bloomberg reports that the middle class is starting to struggle after decades of growth, but the momentum is still behind rising aspirations.

📊 Fifty years ago, most of the region was wretchedly poor, agrarian and misruled. The improvements in most countries have since been breathtaking, as industrialization, education and better governance led to higher quality of life and living standards.

📊The last decade has been particularly strong — between 2015 and 2021, the region accounted for 57% of global GDP growth, and in 2021 contributed almost half of world GDP at PPP, more than any other region. But momentum is now stagnating.

📈Emerging-market middle classes will double in the next decade — expanding from 354 million households in 2024 to 687 million by 2034. Even if China no longer posts the world’s fastest rate of middle-class growth, it will remain the biggest consumer market. By 2029, two in every three middle-class consumers are expected to be from Asia. The biggest increases will come from China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

7 Jan, 07:33

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💵 Dollar Dominance Is the Key to US Debt and Deficits

Bloomberg reports that the greenback has seen off plenty of challengers — for good reason. Trump would do well to recognize its huge strategic value.

📊The eclipse of the dollar, and with it the ability of the US to borrow on a scale that would cripple any other country, has been long predicted. For at least half a century, skeptics have counted on something — or someone — coming along to knock American assets from their perch. Don't plan for a requiem just yet.

📊So the greenback isn't coming undone anytime soon. Its dominance goes beyond an official desire for a strong dollar, a weak one or something in between. The currency's pivotal role is tightly woven into the fabric of the modern economy. It accounts for the majority of global reserves and is one side of about 90% of foreign-exchange trading.

🇺🇸Right now, no other currency offers such a deep and safe pool of liquid assets. China, often cited as the country most likely to challenge US preeminence, distrusts markets. The yuan is subject to all kinds of meddling, from daily parameters on trading set by the central bank to curbs on what investors can take in and out of the country, and how easily. This isn't to say a credible greenback rival won't materialize, but perhaps, the only place that can dethrone the dollar is the US itself and everyone will have a lot to lose.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

6 Jan, 07:57

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📄Trump Should Reform Financial Watchdogs. Here’s How

Bloomberg reports that simplifying oversight of markets and banking would make the system safer. It won’t be easy.

📈No doubt, the current system is unwieldy. At the federal level — excluding an array of separate state regulators — three entities oversee banks, two supervise markets, one aims to protect consumers and another defends against financial crimes.

📊Many large institutions must submit to all of them. Senior managers of an average bank today spend some 42% of their time on compliance-related tasks. Worse, such fragmentation at times allows risks to fall through the cracks.

📉 It’s true that the US has too many regulators — including the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — in addition to state banking authorities. A better approach would be to create a single prudential authority charged with protecting the financial system.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

4 Jan, 09:21

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✔️ Assistants to the khokims are among people ("Mash'al" makhalla)

📍The "Economic Review" Journal continues to cover issues related to the introduction of the new "makhallabay" system.

📌 Arofatkhon Maksudova, assistant to the khokim in "Mash'al" makhalla in Ferghana city, regarding the situation with the introduction of the "makhallabay" system in an interview to "ER".

✂️The editorial provides excerpts from the interview:

➖ In our activities, we pay special attention to reducing youth unemployment, which is considered one of the pain points in our country. Subsidies and preferential loans were provided to achieve this goal. However, we tried not to use this form of social assistance too often. Because, in my opinion, the allocation of subsidies to young people in a sense prevents them from working on themselves.

➖ Based on the Chinese experience, work was carried out on the installation of "smart cameras", which are installed in 25 locations. These cameras can detect unauthorized citizens entering and leaving the mahalla. The territory of the mahalla is fully controlled and under surveillance. Due to this, cases of offenses have decreased dramatically.

➖ People began to believe that with a little effort they could work in their own country and be close to their families, as well as earn the income they were trying to earn abroad.

➖ If explanatory work is carried out correctly among our people, if the true essence of the reforms reaches the people's consciousness, then the development in the mahallas will certainly be dynamic. The experience will increase as you work. I've seen this through my own example. We are gradually achieving our goals. People know us, and the heads of organizations trust us. The most important thing is that people are happy!

Jamoliddin Turdimov

In the country/Assistants to the khokims are among people

«Economic Review» Journal №11/2024

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

4 Jan, 06:49

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🛢Oil Sector Lobbies Trump to Spare It from Tariffs and Regulation

Bloomberg reports that the American Petroleum Institute offers dozens of policy ideas. Trump campaigned on vows to unleash American energy dominance.

🗺Oil industry heavyweights are lobbying President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration to make good on promises to bolster US energy dominance by offering more drilling opportunities, dialing back environmental regulations and insulating the sector from tariffs.

🖨The proposals are spread across 42 pages of memos to 10 agencies the American Petroleum Institute is presenting to Trump’s transition team. The organization is the US oil industry’s primary voice in Washington and has a long history influencing the nation’s energy policy. It’s now poised to wield even greater sway under Trump.

📌Oil companies are bracing for tariffs Trump has vowed to levy on a range of goods, fearing they’ll raise the cost of materials used for wells, pipelines and refineries. They’re also concerned about the prospect he’ll impose duties on crude itself flowing into the US from Canada and Mexico, which refineries depend on to make diesel and gasoline.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

3 Jan, 07:31

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💸Where the Smart Climate Tech Venture Money Is Going in 2025

Bloomberg reports this year is shaping up to be a dramatic one for climate tech investors.

👍 The prospect of more trade wars is scrambling the economy in ways that will determine which climate tech sectors to bet on. Meanwhile, headwinds for hydrogen are throwing doubt on its viability, and artificial intelligence is now fully on investors’ radars.

👍Climate-tech equity raising has also dipped dramatically to an estimated $43 billion in 2024 from more than $127 billion in 2022. Still, market intelligence firm Sightline Climate estimates investors have roughly $86 billion in unspent cash.

📊The pullback on hydrogen began in earnest last year, and investors see it continuing in 2025. Buildings are responsible for nearly 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions and would seem a smart sector to place a few green bets. The trouble is, that’s exactly what’s happened.

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30 Dec 2024, 06:00

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27 Dec 2024, 07:13

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🏛 Billions of Dollars, Bold Action: EMs Battle a Surging Greenback

Bloomberg reports that MSCI EM currency index is set for worst quarter in two years. Intervention can only slow currency depreciation.

👍From Brazil to South Korea, emerging-market central banks are forming a line of defense as a rising dollar pushes their currencies to multi-year lows.

📊The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has fallen 3.1% since end-September and is heading for its biggest quarterly drop in two years, led by the real, Hungarian forint and the Chilean peso. The moves come after the Federal Reserve forecast fewer interest-rate cuts next year and signaled that inflation concerns are back on the radar.

📉The declines in emerging markets have fueled a tide of bearish bets, with some hedge funds wagering that more losses will accrue when President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies kick in.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

26 Dec 2024, 07:31

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🇨🇳China’s Struggling Rich Cities Are Threatening the Entire Economy
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that fiscal hardship gripping poorer provinces is spilling into wealthy regions long considered slowdown-proof.

📊 The fiscal austerity that’s gripped poorer parts of China since the pandemic is now spilling into provinces that long seemed slowdown-proof, threatening the Communist Party’s ability to propel its $18 trillion economy. Preserving that earning power was given fresh urgency by the election victory of Donald Trump, who has pledged to choke off critical Chinese exports.

📉Troubles plaguing China’s wealth belt accentuate the scars of an unprecedented property downturn and go some way toward explaining the government’s recent embrace of stimulus. Determining whether the debt swap program can succeed in rescuing rich provinces will likely take months, if not years.

📊It hardly matters where regions once stood in the economic pecking order. In a worrying sign, the southern powerhouse of Guangdong in the first 9 months of the year clocked its weakest expansion since the pandemic. The housing crash that’s made developers reluctant to purchase land choked off a key source of income, just as local governments collected less tax from struggling companies. A debt pile-up also made interest payments a growing burden.

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25 Dec 2024, 14:16

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☑️#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade with the EAEU countries for January-November 2024

🤝President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is paying a working visit to St. Petersburg to participate in the CIS and EAEU summits on December 25-26.

📈On May 29, 2024, the EAEU celebrated 10 years. Uzbekistan has an observer status in the EAEU since 2020. The Republic ranks 1st among the EAEU trade partners from all CIS countries that are not members of the EAEU.

4️⃣Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU member states in January-November 2024 increased by 11.1% amounted to $15.9 billion, of which:
◾️exports – $5.4 bln.
◾️imports – $10.5 bln.

🇷🇺Foreign trade turnover with Russia amounted to $10.7 bln. (+20.5%)
◾️exports – $3.4 bln.
◾️imports – $7.3 bln.

🇰🇿Foreign trade turnover with Kazakhstan amounted to $3.9 bln.
◾️exports – $1.3 bln.
◾️imports – $2.6 bln.

🇰🇬Foreign trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan amounted to $740 mln.
◾️exports – $477 mln.
◾️imports – $263 mln.

🇧🇾Foreign trade turnover with Belarus amounted to $646 mln. (+13.4%)
◾️exports – $150 mln.
◾️imports – $496 mln.

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25 Dec 2024, 13:15

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📁#Infographics: Uzbekistan's trade with CIS countries in January-November 2024

🤝President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is paying a working visit to St. Petersburg to participate in the CIS and EAEU summits on December 25-26.

📍In January-November this year, the CIS countries accounted for 35.4% of the foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

✔️The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the CIS countries in January-November this year increased by 13.1% and amounted to $21 billion

◼️export – $8.3 bln (+10.7%)
◼️import – $12.7 bln (+14.7%)

✔️The largest shares of foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries were with Russia (51%), Kazakhstan (18%), Turkmenistan (5%) and Kyrgyzstan (4%).

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© Иқтисодий шарҳ
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