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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

@review_en
Channel's geo and language: Uzbekistan, English
Category: Economics

Information and analytical portal of the "Economic Review" Journal. Official channel of Review.uz website
Editorial team: @CERRUZB
78 150 02 02 (417)
Advertising: 99878-150-02-02 (432)
In English: @review_en
In Uzbek: @reviewuznews
In Russian: @reviewuz

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

7 Feb, 07:31

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🇺🇸Trade Blackmail Will Backfire on the US

Bloomberg reports that planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended, but the economic damage has been done.

💬About the best that can be said of the new trade policy emanating from the White House is that it’s all a bluff. After several days of panic, the US agreed to delay enormous new tariffs on Canada and Mexico in exchange for some token border-security measures.

📌Yet serious damage has already been done. And these costs will be nothing compared to the harm that the new administration might yet inflict by starting a full-scale global trade war. If that happens, everybody loses — Americans not least. This new economic strategy, if one can dignify it with that term, ranks among the worst White House initiatives ever undertaken.

🗓Tariffs will raise prices and cut real incomes. And sheltering US producers from competition will make them less efficient, diminishing growth and living standards while adding to the need for continuing subsidies. As the familiar cycle of rising protectionism and falling competitiveness escalates, a trade war will yield what it always does: mutually assured stagnation.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

6 Feb, 07:35

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🌎 Winners of the First Trade War May Not Be So Victorious

Bloomberg reports that stuck between the US and China, Southeast Asia’s challenges this time around are much greater.

📉The health of the relationship between the US and China has been viewed within Asia as an important gauge of America's appetite for sprawling supply chains — and where they are best located. The signs aren’t auspicious: The 10% hike in levies on imports from China alone is the biggest single increase under Trump. Overall, the effective average tariff moved up “modestly” to 2.8% in 2020 from 1.5% in 2016.

🇹🇭Thailand, an early manufacturing star, now has an anemic pace of growth.
🇲🇾Malaysia's expansion is respectable, but no world-beater.
🇸🇬Singapore had a good 2024, though growth was tempered in the final three months.
🇻🇳Vietnam, lauded as a rising power, is trying to streamline its bureaucracy and cut the size of government by 20%.
🇮🇩Indonesia isn't satisfied with 5% growth, but nurses unrealistic ambitions to lift that clip to 8%.

📊The greater import may not be what happens to individual countries or even specific industries, but the collateral damage to the standing of trade agreements and the ideas that underpinned them. Free, or relatively unchained, trade has taken a philosophical hit. This isn't the end of globalization, but it’s surely a new, tortured chapter.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

5 Feb, 07:32

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☀️ AI Has Rocked the Stock Market, But What Will It Do for the Economy
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that for all the excitement, evidence of a boost to productivity is still thin on the ground.

📝There are three ways that could happen. Optimists see AI as a driver of rising prosperity: investors win and so do workers. Pessimists worry that chatbots are more parlor trick than paradigm shift, and the billions sunk into training models won’t ever generate a return. There’s also a dystopian view, with AI making the algorithm-elite rich beyond imagining, and everyone else unemployed.

📊Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that by 2034 US GDP will be 2.3% bigger as a result of AI. McKinsey Global Institute goes further and expects a 5-13% boost by 2040.

📊Daron Acemoglu, a 2024 Nobel laureate in economics, estimates that only 5% of tasks currently performed by humans will be taken over by AI in the next 10 years. He expects the contribution to GDP a decade from now to be around 1%.

📈Technology is a major driver of productivity growth, but gains are not always quick to arrive. “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics,” wrote Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Solow back in 1987. It took decades for the electric motor to show up in the productivity statistics.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

4 Feb, 10:50

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🇺🇿🇲🇾 Infographics: Trade and Economic Cooperation Between Uzbekistan and Malaysia

1️⃣President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, at the invitation of the Prime Minister of Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim, departed for Malaysia today on an official visit.

#CERR has analyzed trade-economic and investment cooperation between Uzbekistan and Malaysia for the 2017–2024 period.

📶 Over the period from 2017 to 2024, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Malaysia increased by 1.6 times, from $65.5 mln. to $102.4 mln.
◾️Exports grew by 1.3 times
◾️Imports increased by 1.6 times

🔝 In 2024, Uzbekistan’s exports amounted to $6 mln., of which 41% accounted for food products, including vegetables, legumes, and fruits, and 55% were chemical substances, in particular fertilizers.

🔝The volume of imports from Malaysia amounted to $96.4 mln., of which 23% accounted for food products such as cocoa powder, coffee extracts, sauces, and confectionery.

📊 As of January 1, 2025, 36 enterprises with Malaysian investments were registered in Uzbekistan.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

4 Feb, 09:12

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Forward from: Center for Economic Research and Reforms
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🎙Комментарий старшего экономиста по вопросам бедности и равенства представительства Всемирного банка в Узбекистане Икуко Уочи.

С 2020 года Всемирный банк и правительство Узбекистана сотрудничают в области измерения и оценки бедности с использованием данных обследований бюджетов домохозяйств. Сегодня правительство опубликовало данные об уровне бедности в стране за 2024 год.

В 2024 году уровень бедности составил 8,9%, что на 2,1 процентного пункта меньше, чем в 2023 году, когда он был 11%.

Основным фактором сокращения бедности в 2024 году стал значительный рост трудовых доходов среди бедных в сельской местности. В результате уровень сельской бедности снизился с 12% в 2023 году до 9,2% в 2024 году.

Несмотря на успешное сокращение уровня бедности, в 2024 году более 3 миллионов человек все еще продолжают жить за национальной чертой бедности.

Для дальнейшего сокращения уровня бедности крайне важно продолжить создавать большее количество качественных и устойчивых рабочих мест, а также расширять возможности для участия женщин и бедных слоев населения на рынке труда. Эти меры являются ключевыми для достижения целей правительства по уменьшению бедности.


World Bank Uzbekistan | Инфографика от ЦЭИР

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

4 Feb, 07:31

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👍Climate Tech Funding Fell 40% in 2024 as Investors Rushed to AI

Bloomberg reports that equity financing for climate technologies slumped in 2024 as investors switched to artificial intelligence, signaling an uphill battle for emerging efforts in decarbonization.

📄There were 1,200 deals for a total of nearly $51 billion last year, compared to almost $84 billion in 2023. This is the third straight year that venture capital and private and public equity financing have dropped for climate-focused companies.

📈Carbon and nature was the only sector to experience an increase in funding, which partly attributed to favorable policies for carbon removal and growing demand for high-quality credits.

📊 AI companies experienced a huge bump in equity funding last year, reaching nearly $100 billion while climate tech venture funding fell by $20 billion to $32 billion.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

3 Feb, 16:05

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🇺🇿Analysis of Poverty Levels and Household Income in Uzbekistan in 2024 (+Infographics)

By the end of 2024, the poverty rate in Uzbekistan decreased by 2.1 percentage points. Experts from the CERR noted changes in the poverty profile and an increase in household incomes across all regions of the country.

📝The poverty rate in Uzbekistan decreased to 8.9% over the year. As a result, 719,000 people were lifted out of poverty.

👍The pace of poverty reduction shows significant progress in Bukhara and Samarkand regions.

📉Real household incomes increased by 10.7%.

📈Entrepreneurial income grew by 1.5%, reaching 22.9%.

📈Wages accounted for 42.6% of total household income.

📊Household income from wages increased by 12.9%.

📊 The share of officially employed citizens rose by 30%.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

3 Feb, 08:01

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🇺🇸 How Trump's Tariffs Aim a Wrecking Ball at the Economy of the Americas
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that after weeks of threats, a North American trade war has erupted. Businesses and investors are bracing for the fallout.

📊Donald Trump’s move to invoke an emergency and impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China is the most extensive act of protectionism taken by a US president in almost a century. In what may be the biggest geopolitical and economic consequence, it swings a wrecking ball through the regional compact at the foundation of US global competitiveness and economic power.

📉The rapid escalation in trade tensions fueled a flight to haven assets as investors brace for the knock-on effects of Trump’s moves. The yields on 2-year US Treasuries rose while European and US stock futures slumped, the Canadian dollar sank to its weakest since 2003, while the euro extended its decline after Trump said tariffs on EU goods would “definitely happen.”

📈A dramatic reaction from financial markets on Monday might cause Trump to delay the imposition of tariffs and call for talks with Canada and Mexico. He might eventually also strike a deal with China. But in the end Trump is signaling again – and more forcefully than ever before – that he wants to remake the global economy and North America in his own particular way.

📎Treasury’s Elite Bond Dealers Will Struggle to Handle $50 Trillion Debt
📎Dollar Dominance Is the Key to US Debt and Deficits
📎America Still Leads the World in All the Ways That Matter

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

31 Jan, 11:03

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Forward from: Center for Economic Research and Reforms
📝Uzbekistan and Germany’s Think Tanks Agree on Cooperation in Agricultural Research

On January 27, 2025, the Center for Economic Research and Reform (CERR) and the Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO) formalized their partnership through the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in an online format.

📄The Memorandum signed between the CERR and the IAMO opens new horizons for scientific collaboration between Uzbekistan and Germany in the field of agricultural research.

📈In his remarks, Dr. Obid Khakimov emphasized that this partnership is especially relevant given Uzbekistan’s ongoing agricultural reforms, which focus on enhancing competitiveness and integrating innovative technologies into the sector.

🤝Both parties are confident that the cooperation will contribute to developing strategies for modernizing Uzbekistan’s agro-industrial complex, enhancing rural development and food security and improving the overall quality of life in rural areas.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

31 Jan, 07:33

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🇰🇷Samsung’s Chip Division Underwhelms in Costly AI Memory Race

Bloomberg reports that Nvidia gives delayed approval on less-advanced Samsung HBM. Korea’s largest company is fighting to narrow SK Hynix’s lead.

📊Samsung is ratcheting up its research and operating costs, with executives saying the spending on memory would stay at the elevated level as last year. Total capital expenditures came to $37 billion in 2024.

📉Investors remain concerned about Samsung’s ability to claw its way back into the market for HBM chips, designed to work with Nvidia’s AI accelerators. The company has struggled to get its latest products certified by Nvidia — providing an unusually long window for SK Hynix and Micron to carve out commanding leads in the booming HBM market.

📊SK Hynix posted record quarterly income earlier this month, eclipsing Samsung’s operating profit for the first time. Hynix said HBM made up 40% of its overall DRAM chip revenue in the quarter and it expects HBM sales to more than double this year.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

30 Jan, 12:39

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➡️#Infographics: Economic Development of Uzbekistan in 2024

📹In 2024, Uzbekistan's economy continued its dynamic growth. According to the Statistics Agency, the GDP in 2024 grew by 6.5% (in 2023 by 6.3%), which fully corresponds to the December forecast of the #CERR.

🗓 Growth in production was observed in all principal sectors of the economy, excluding the oil and gas extraction and pharmaceutical industries.

❕ There is a positive dynamics of attracting investments. During this period, the volume of investments in fixed assets increased by 27.6%.

📈 industry grew by 6.8%
📈 the volume of market services provided by 12.9%
📈 the volume of transport services increased by 11.8%
📈 construction sector increased by 8.8%

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

30 Jan, 07:32

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🏛Global Banks Make Little Headway in Addressing Climate Change

Bloomberg reports that financing ratio for low-carbon energy rose slightly in 2023. Key number remains far below net zero emissions goal of 4 to 1.

📊 At the end of 2023, the so-called energy-supply banking ratio (ESBR), which includes debt and equity underwriting, was 0.89 to 1, up from 0.74 in 2022 and 0.78 in 2021.

📉Investment in low-carbon energy surpassed capital flows into oil, gas and coal projects for the first time and bank financing for fossil fuels actually fell in 2023. However, part of the reason for the decline in financing was China, where more companies switched to loans from bonds — and data on loans is harder to nail down.

📈Bank financing for fossil fuel and low carbon energy supplies totaled $1.6 trillion in 2023, down from $1.8 trillion the prior year. From the 2023 figures, BNEF came up with the ESBR of 0.89 for the industry.

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Review.uz/en - Economic Review

29 Jan, 10:03

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📊 There is a moderate growth in the Business Activity Index in Uzbekistan

1️⃣The Business Activity Index (BAI) calculated by CERR showed moderate changes during 2024, averaging 1,063 points (6.3%) per year.

➡️The following changes were observed in the BAI components

🔼the number of transactions on bank accounts of business entities increased by 7.7%

🔼 the component associated with operating business entities increased by 3.5%

🔽the intensity of the purchase of raw materials on the commodity exchange decreased by 6.4%

🔼the component of trademarks increased significantly by 7.5%

⬆️ In the regional context, Kashkadarya region showed the highest growth

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29 Jan, 07:31

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🐋DeepSeek Reveals How Badly Energy Industry Needs AI for Growth

Bloomberg reports that from pipelines to reactors, companies bank on data center boom, but DeepSeek’s more efficient model threatens growth forecasts.

📊DeepSeek’s announcement hammered the shares of uranium producers and natural gas pipeline operators alike. Companies that supply power plant equipment and data center cooling systems suffered as well in Monday’s big selloff.

📉US pipeline operators had been counting on new data centers to boost demand for natural gas. Growth forecasts ranged from 2 billion to 10 billion cubic feet per day. Kinder Morgan Inc. cited data centers in its recent, bullish growth forecasts, and saw its stock tumble 9% Monday. Uranium names were among the worst performers in the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

📊The basic nuclear thesis still holds, in part because power demand is going to climb from homes and factories that are increasingly shifting to electricity. DeepSeek’s efficiency could even lead to more widespread use of AI. Natural gas will be a winner here, primarily because it is the lowest cost from a reliability perspective, analytics say.

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28 Jan, 08:01

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🐋DeepSeek Challenges Everyone’s Assumptions About AI Costs
[long read]

Bloomberg reports that the Chinese upstart says its rival to ChatGPT comes at a fraction of the cost, raising questions about the rationale for stratospheric AI budgets.

🔣 A little-known Chinese AI startup called DeepSeek released a new open-source AI model called R1 that can mimic the way humans reason. The company said R1 rivaled or outperformed leading US developers on a range of industry benchmarks, including for mathematical tasks and general knowledge — and was built for a small fraction of the cost.

📉Almost overnight, DeepSeek has upended many of the assumptions inside Silicon Valley about the economics of building AI, as well as the best technical methods for developing the technology and the extent of the US lead over competitors in China. For much of the past two years since ChatGPT kicked off the global AI frenzy, the industry has bet that the path to better AI depends largely on spending heavily on more advanced chips from companies like Nvidia and increasingly massive data centers to house them.

📉Hype over DeepSeek's feat drove a nearly $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stock as investors questioned the spending plans of some of America’s biggest companies. The share plunge in AI chipmaker Nvidia alone erased roughly $589 billion in market value, the biggest wipeout in US stock-market history.

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27 Jan, 13:03

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☑️#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade with the EAEU countries in 2024

📈On May 29, 2024, the EAEU celebrated 10 years. Uzbekistan has an observer status in the EAEU since 2020. The Republic ranks 1st among the EAEU trade partners from all CIS countries that are not members of the EAEU.

4️⃣Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU member states in January-December 2024 increased by 7.3% amounted to $17.5 billion, of which:
◾️exports – $5.8 bln.
◾️imports – $11.7 bln.

🇷🇺Foreign trade turnover with Russia amounted to $11.6 bln. (+14.5%)
◾️exports – $3.7 bln.
◾️imports – $7.9 bln.

🇰🇿Foreign trade turnover with Kazakhstan amounted to $4.3 bln.
◾️exports – $1.5 bln.
◾️imports – $2.8 bln.

🇰🇬Foreign trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan amounted to $846 mln.
◾️exports – $513 mln.
◾️imports – $333 mln.

🇧🇾Foreign trade turnover with Belarus amounted to $714 mln. (+9.1%)
◾️exports – $163 mln.
◾️imports – $551 mln.

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27 Jan, 10:04

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🟢EU’s Green Bonds Will Avoid Bloc’s Own ‘Gold Standard’ Rules

Bloomberg reports that bloc will carry on with existing framework since sales ongoing. Failing to align with own rules risks slowing use of standard.

📊The bloc started selling such securities in 2021, before the voluntary European Green Bond Standard was finalized, to fund projects through to 2026. Due to the fixed nature of that timeframe and the fact that bond sales are already underway, its original green framework will be applied for the entirety of the issuance.

🇪🇺The EU said in November that it has sold more than $67 billion of its so-called NextGenerationEU green bonds, putting it on track to becoming the largest issuer in the world. The new EU standards only became available to borrowers last month, though no bond issuers have used them so far. While the rules are voluntary, alignment is necessary if issuers want to market their debt as a “European green bond.”

📈The rules require at least 85% of bond proceeds to be aligned with the EU’s green taxonomy, effectively a list of environmentally-friendly activities. Germany have said they have no immediate plans to abide by the rules.

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27 Jan, 08:41

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📁#Infographics: Uzbekistan's trade with CIS countries in 2024

📍In January-December 2024, the CIS countries accounted for 35.1% of the foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

✔️The foreign trade turnover of the Republic of Uzbekistan with the CIS countries in January-December last year increased by 10.7% and amounted to $23.1 billion

◼️export – $9.1 bln (+9.5%)
◼️import – $14 bln (+11.4%)

✔️The largest shares of foreign trade turnover with the CIS countries were with Russia (50%), Kazakhstan (19%), Turkmenistan (5%) and Kyrgyzstan (4%).

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27 Jan, 07:48

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🇦🇪A productive visit to Abu Dhabi

1️⃣An analytical article by Obid Khakimov, Director of the #CERR, was published in the "Pravda Vostoka" newspaper, summarizing the outcomes of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s official visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

🪧 During talks with UAE President, six key areas for a new model of economic cooperation were identified, focusing on artificial intelligence, digitalization, green energy, urban development and infrastructure, tourism, and private business.

📊A key task was identified: increasing mutual trade volumes tenfold by 2030 and growing the investment portfolio to $50 billion.

"Mutually beneficial cooperation with the UAE serves as a key to Uzbekistan’s successful economic integration into international markets and the realization of its regional potential."


🔝The article includes the following sections:
🔘 Sustainability as a Key Focus
🔘 Economic Issues at the Forefront of Negotiations
🔘 Business Meetings
🔘 Uzbekistan's Economic Cooperation with the UAE
🔘 Conclusion

Obid Khakimov,
CERR director

"Pravda Vostoka" newspaper №16 (30590)
23.01.2025

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