Probabilistic thinking
Today I encountered new term "Probabilistic thinking". If nothing is absolutely certain, then views can be expressed only in terms of probabilities. Probabilistic thinking is about assessing outcomes and decisions based on their likelihood or probabilities rather than certainties. It encourages stepping beyond personal biases (whether optimistic or pessimistic) to make decisions based on the most accurate probabilities, improving judgment and decision-making.
The formula is:
Expected Value (EV)=∑(probability of outcome×value of outcome)
@happybeek
Today I encountered new term "Probabilistic thinking". If nothing is absolutely certain, then views can be expressed only in terms of probabilities. Probabilistic thinking is about assessing outcomes and decisions based on their likelihood or probabilities rather than certainties. It encourages stepping beyond personal biases (whether optimistic or pessimistic) to make decisions based on the most accurate probabilities, improving judgment and decision-making.
The formula is:
Expected Value (EV)=∑(probability of outcome×value of outcome)
@happybeek