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What Trump’s Next Trade War Could Look Like, a GuideBloomberg reports that Trump’s tariffs could go in many different directions. Understanding the strategy from his first term, and the priorities of his new team, reveals a potential path ahead.📊Part of the challenge:
separating the drama of
Trump’s free-wheeling public statements — like his currency-rattling
tariff threats to
Mexico,
Canada and
China and a fresh warning to the
BRICS economies on Saturday — from the
slower-
moving processes by which tariffs are designed and enacted.
📄On the road to his
Nov. 5 win,
Trump suggested he would put a
60%
tariff on
imports from
China and a
10% to
20%
fee on
goods coming from
anywhere else. The
import taxes that he will deliver in office, however, seem likely to be
sequenced and
targeted to
maximize negotiating
leverage and tariff
revenue while
shielding US consumers from a return of the
inflation that helped elect him.
📊Bloomberg Economics base case calls for
three waves of tariff hikes, starting in
summer 2025, with levies on
China ultimately tripling by the
end of
2026 and a smaller hike on the
rest of the world — focused on
intermediate and
capital goods that don’t directly
impact consumer prices. The
combined impact would be a
tripling of average
US tariffs to almost
8% by the
end of
2026.
📉 If that’s how things
play out,
US imports and
exports of goods
will drop from
21% of the global total today to
18%, including a
plunge in
US-China trade.
US growth gets
dinged,
inflation faces
fierce cross currents from
higher tariffs and a
stronger dollar,
bullish stock markets have a bearish
hurdle to clear and
unemployment rises.
📎
America’s Free-Lunch Economy Is Over📎
The World’s Central Banks Aren’t Following the Fed’s Lead Anymore📎
Global Economic Risks Should Be Faced, Not IgnoredRead full:
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en review.uz/en/a7pru review.uz/a7p
More analytics⬇️⬇️⬇️
© Экономическое обозрение
© Иқтисодий шарҳ
© Economic Review
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